If you don’t watch live television, read a newspaper or follow the matter on the internet, then the US Presidential elections campaign could pretty much pass you by – and I suspect, at least for the time being, that is what is happening across the States for most Americans (in the last Presidential election only 63% of eligible voters voted – and that was the best showing in 48 years). Deep in the commentaries and analyses a number of trends have been highlighted that are probably going to change the way American Presidential campaigns are run in future. Obama has taken a few swipes at Fox News but surveys reveal that Americans are watching live television (where the all-important ads – and they are shockingly partisan to European eyes – are run) less and less. Surveys also  reveal that religious affiliation is in decline (one in five Americans are without religious affliations or beliefs). The image of suburbia as the hub of white affluence is fast fading: most American suburbanites now live in racially diverse areas. Texas will have a hispanic-origin majority in the near future. The national birthrate is at its lowest in 25 years. Republican efforts to fight voter fraud through tougher registration requirements have widely been regarded as a backdoor means of discouraging the ‘wrong sort of voter’ from registering, but the underlying trends I have touched upon here all hint, say the pundits, at a significant erosion of the GOP’s traditional electoral base. If Obama is currently edging it Romney could yet win, say those same pundits, if the economic outlook remains gloomy or declines. He would win by appealing more effectively to a core vote that may be evaporating.  Such a victory would illustrate an essential paradox of American presidential elections; to win you have to divide but to govern effectively you have to unite. Assuming the pundits and the trends they have identified are correct, it will be interesting to see how American party politics evolves over the next few decades…