Today is the last day of campaigning before the British electorate votes in what the media are describing as the most open election in decades. For what it’s worth, today’s Financial Times gives the following odds: Conservatives govern with other parties, 8/10; Conservatives win an outright majority, 7/10; Conservative minority government, 6/10; Labour and Lib Dem coalition (presumably, minus Brown), 4/10. There has been some fevered speculation about constitutional mechanics. What happens, for example, if Labour comes third in terms of the popular vote but, through the vagaries of the first-past-the-post constituency-based system, wins many more seats than the Lib Dems? Surely, argue the pundits, the pressure for constitutional change to the electoral system will become irresistable. More pragmatically and prosaically, the leaders of both major parties have been careful to leave the door to coalition government ajar. But a little voice inside my head keeps telling me we’ve been here before. After all, back in 1997 Tony Blair fully expected to have to govern in coalition with the Lib Dems…
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